Method for deducing IP network congestion link packet loss rate range

The invention discloses a method for deducing an IP network congestion link packet loss rate range. The method comprises the following steps: creating a to-be-tested IP network Bayesian network model, learning each link congestion prior probability to serve as positioning congestion link experience and knowledge, and positioning a congestion link by Bayesian maximum posterior; and providing a path collection method relative to clustering congestion link and having similar performance, solving coefficients with similar performance in a clustering path set, and deducing the congestion link in the entire to-be-tested IP network and the link packet loss rate range thereof by means of the greedy heuristic search cycle. According to the method, the link which is subjected to the congestion most easily in the congestion paths by the link congestion maximum posterior cost values Cp through the link congestion BMAP criterion, the traditional experience method using a bottleneck link as congestion link positioning is r