Non-linear regression method for urban power load short-period prediction

The invention relates to a non-linear regression method for urban power load short-period prediction. A relation curve influencing a factor change is drawn; according to industrial, commercial and resident load proportionality coefficients based on statistics, poly-type non-linear composite model characteristic curves of all loads are obtained by analyses; an accurate multi-element poly-type composite non-linear regression model is obtained; and for the obtained multi-element poly-type composite non-linear regression model, a model prediction value is calculated based on hypothesis testing in mathematical statistics by using a measured load data sample, verification is carried out according to characteristics of all loads obtained by analyses in advance, and determination whether to refuse or accept the model hypothesis is made, thereby obtaining quantitative data related to the model credibility. According to the invention, all factors influencing the load change can be added into the prediction model by using a multi-element regression model; and with the non-linear regression model, defects of the linear regression model can be effectively overcome, thereby improving the prediction precision.