Commentaries: The Bass model: a parsimonious and accurate approach to forecasting mortality caused by COVID-19

The dynamics of the COVID-19 is difficult to model because so much is unknown about it. Government interventions to flatten the curve have successfully slowed the spread of the virus in the USA, but challenges in predicting the future rate of infection are owing to not knowing the true mechanisms of transmission, infection and recovery and not having accurate data on who has actually been exposed to the virus and have tested positive to its antibodies. This paper illustrates that simple models can predict well in these instances.