Violent Extremist Organizations and the Electoral Cycle in Africa: A Framework for Analyzing the 2015 Tanzanian Elections

Violent extremist organizations (VEOs), once relatively rare in sub-Saharan Africa, are rapidly becoming a serious threat to regime stability in several key African countries. In addition to generalized political violence and terrorist attacks directed at soft targets, VEOs have used elections to further their organizational goals in several key ways. This paper examines past and upcoming elections in Kenya, Nigeria and Tanzania, all of which have experienced VEO attacks as part of the electoral process. Past events in Nigeria and Kenya in particular are examined alongside a deeper analysis of Tanzania so as to forecast the potential for VEO activity before or after the 2015 Tanzanian election. Focusing on elections as a galvanizing event or focal point for VEO activity may provide us with leverage in order to better understand and reduce VEO activity in Africa.