Methodology of an Event-Driven Monte Carlo Missile Simulation

This paper describes the methodology used by the Center for Naval Analyses to develop a Monte Carlo missile simulation that computes probabilities of target acquisition and distributions of missile arrival times. The simulation accounts for numerous missile and target uncertainties. Coordinated strikes are simulated by modeling multiple missiles from multiple launch points firing on a group of targets. Tactical applications of the simulation required that it be computationally efficient. This led to an event-driven time advancement scheme.