Effects of Disturbance on Populations of Marine Mammals

Our long-term goal is to develop transferable models of the population-level effects of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on marine mammals. Disturbances can affect the physiology or behavior of animals, which in turn may lead to changes in demographic rates and viability. Population-level effects of disturbance also may cascade among species. However, it has proven difficult to identify and model the mechanisms by which individual-level responses to disturbance might propagate to the population level. A clear, quantitative understanding of such mechanisms will inform the assessment of trade-offs among potential responses of species to environmental changes and diverse human activities. The specific objectives of this project are as follows: (1) translate conceptual models of the effects of disturbance on behavior or physiology, health, vital rates, and population dynamics into quantitative models for different taxa; (2) prioritize data collection for estimation of population-level effects of different types of disturbance on marine mammals with different life-history attributes; (3) examine the extent to which the collection of high-priority data currently is feasible in terms of time, money, and technology; (4) examine inferences about effects of disturbance on individuals and populations that can be drawn on the basis of limited empirical information or with expert elicitation; and (5) compare inferences about population-level effects of disturbance that are based on extensive empirical data to those based on expert elicitation.