Tilting toward the Dragon: South Korea's China Debate

Since diplomatic normalization in 1992, after a half century of animosity, South Korea s debate about China has become increasingly favorable. Historical and cultural affinities, as well as recent burgeoning trade, are important drivers in this phase of South Korea s China debate. North Korea s nuclear provocation also drives Seoul s favorable view of China as Seoul looks to Beijing to play an important mediating role between North Korea and the United States. In South Korea s China debate, China s economic rise is viewed as largely a positive factor. China has emerged as the principal trading partner of South Korea, whose export-oriented economy has become increasingly dependent on the fast-growing China market. Notwithstanding the fear of growing Chinese competition, Korean industries tend to see the rise of China as a business opportunity rather than a threat. Burgeoning trade has improved political relations between the two former enemies. As South Korean public opinion toward China grows favorable with expanding exchange between the two societies, South Korea s politicians and government officials today praise China as a new partner in building peace and stability in Northeast Asia. Growing China-South Korea ties lead to an emerging debate on whether South Korea should consider forging a new strategic alliance with China at the expense of the U.S.-ROK alliance. Despite the public s largely favorable perception of China, the South Korean foreign policy elite, especially the military, seems to be less optimistic about China s intention and thus prefers the status quo of maintaining a strong alliance with the United States. The United States will likely remain South Korea s most important partner as long as the United States provides security against the North Korean threat, high technology, and a large export market.