Root Causes of Nunn-McCurdy Breaches - A Survey of PARCA Root Causes Analyses, 2010-2011

The Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act of 2009 (WSARA) requires root cause analyses (RCA) be conducted on major defense acquisition programs (MDAPs) with extreme cost growth for its Nunn-McCurdy breach certification process. In 2010 and 2011, the Director for Performance Assessments and Root Cause Analyses (PARCA) conducted fourteen RCAs with support from the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), the RAND Corporation, and the University of Tennessee. IDA was tasked to identify common causes exposed by these RCAs. IDA developed a taxonomy to classify the root causes reported by IDA and RAND, compiled a survey table, and identified unrealistic schedule, evolving requirements, inadequate government management, and exogenous quantity changes as the most frequently cited root causes. The survey shows that the root causes of program cost growth are many, not just a single factor such as immature technology or lack of systems engineering. The prevalence of causes at program inception shows that a rigorous Milestone B process is important for controlling extreme cost growth. Finally, this report concludes that management of MDAPs matters, as almost half of the RCAs reported inadequate government management as a significant root cause for cost growth.