A Risk Assessment Methodology and Excel Tool for Acquisition Programs

Implementing risk management principles to manage large defense acquisition programs is a priority for the U.S. defense acquisition. In 2006, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) released an official risk management guide for acquisition professionals. Furthermore, the 2009 Weapon Systems Acquisition Reform Act (WSARA) mandated that critical technologies undergo a periodic review and assessment regarding technological maturity and integration risk.1 To assist those decision makers responsible for identifying the risk associated with major weapons programs, RAND researchers developed a methodology and accompanying Excel, information-based risk tool (the Assessor Tool ). The package offers an approach to the evaluation and measurement of system integration risk for assessors, such as Office of the Secretary of Defense (OSD) staff, who may not be especially familiar with the specific program under evaluation but still may need to make judgments about a program s risk. The Assessor Tool and its methodology are also generalizable to an entire set of information-based risk assessment applications. As of this writing, the Assessor Tool has not yet been validated in a real-world setting. As such, the tool is not yet generally available for download. However, the tool is available for prospective users on a trial basis. Instructions for requesting a copy of the Assessor Tool can be found in the Preface. The users manual for the Assessor Tool is available in a companion document (see Fleishman-Mayer, Arena, and McMahon, 2013).