Scenario Generation and Assessment Framework Solution in Support of the Comprehensive Approach

The Comprehensive Approach to security, including military support to civilian authorities in stabilization and reconstruction operations, is central for the improvement of defense and force planning. More and more the foresight activities support to planning are based on generation and analysis of scenarios (authors have been participated in recent EU and NATO projects like: FORESEC, ESRIF, SAFE, using ideas and tools, presented in the paper). The proposed methodological approach encompasses a multi-level analysis and synthesis for both scenario generation and assessment via M&S as an ad-hoc solution for national usage in the integrated security sector. The morphological and system analysis are implemented within original ad-hoc solution for the problem in the paper. Our approach is further strengthened with a tool for assessment of scenarios through dynamic simulation with COTS and NC3A products. The solution was a joint work, developed and implemented with the participation of academic research, decision makers and experts from Ministry of Defense, Ministry of Interior, Ministry of Emergencies (currently integrated within Ministry of Interior), Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Ministry of Health - Republic of Bulgaria. The tools are currently fully integrated as a critical element of BEST (Basic Environment for Simulation and Training). Early version of BEST was used in two days CAX - EU TACOM SEE-2006, 1 day CAX - Struma 2008 and further developments are a contribution to NATO RTA MSG-049 study and CAX Phoenix - 2010 preparation. The revealed models and tools are a basis for practical cooperation between Bulgarian researchers and NC3A. See also ADA564688. Analytical Support to Defence Transformation (Le soutien analytique a la transformation de la Defense). RTO-MP-SAS-081