The Future of Warfare and Impact of Space Operations

We, the United States, have been under daily attack. The attacks are occurring in the cyber domain. Cyber domain aggressors have a great advantage; they can be difficult to identify. Even when cyber aggressors can be identified, their association with a nation, group, or industry can be difficult to attribute. For this reason, difficulty of attribution, cyber warfare is occurring as a preferred method of conflict between large players on the global stage. Smaller players also have reasons to avoid conventional warfare and remain hidden. In Iraq and Afghanistan, those who fight against us attempt to remain hidden. The individual who places an improvised explosive device (IED) attempts to engage us without exposure or identification. Those who aid the individual emplacing an IED do so with hidden networks of support. The IED is an anonymous weapon. Both cyber warfare and insurgent use of IEDs depend upon difficulty in locating the actor and attributing those actions to a controlling cell or entity. Unattributable robotics is a natural progression for both. As robotics technology becomes prevalent, it will become easier to use and more affordable for smaller players to use on a large scale. Moreover, as technology used in unmanned vehicles gains greater commercial availability, it will become more difficult to attribute. Space enables our military in a way that greatly reduces the requirements for ground-and air-based systems and manpower. We hunt individuals and cells that do not show themselves as a regular, recognizable military. Space-based platforms can cover large areas in identifying, locating, and attributing. The capabilities to identify, locate, and attribute provided by Space are critical in prosecuting future wars. Conflict in Space is likely to follow the methods being used in cyber warfare in that the actors seek to remain hidden or difficult to positively attribute. Warfare in general is apparently moving in this direction of anonymity. Published in Army Space Journal, v10 n2 p30-33, Spring-Summer Edition 2011 (Profession of Arms in Army Space and Missile Defense).