Root Cause Analysis for the ATIRCM/CMWS Program

We studied the Advanced Threat Infrared Countermeasure & Common Missile Warning System (ATIRCM/CMWS) program to understand the root cause of its recent critical Nunn-McCurdy Breach. We discovered two causes. First, neither system was technically mature enough when the program was granted Milestone II authority in 1996 and this has caused numerous technical problems resulting in large cost growth in non-recurring engineering. The inaccurate technological maturity assessments led to unrealistic baseline estimates for both cost and schedule. Second, the combined weight of the two systems is far in excess of that specified in the operational requirements document from Milestone II and no major effort was made to reduce it. Because of the weight, the system could not be used as a fleet-wide solution, as envisioned at Milestone II. Consequently, a quantity reduction was inevitable, leading to growth in unit cost. We also found that this program has used methods for quantity accounting that may have become inconsistent with statute. While quantity accounting has not caused cost growth, it has somewhat obscured it.