Gulf Security and Iraq's Uncertain Future

Iraq's uncertain future hangs like a pall over the Persian Gulf. Five years after sanctions were imposed, followed closely by a punishing war, the regime in Baghdad still clings to power. Moreover, despite Saddam Hussein's recent enforced cooperation with the United Nations, he has not complied with all relevant U.N. ceasefire resolutions. What lies ahead for Iraq? Is the current regime likely to survive? What difference does its survival or demise make to Gulf security? What challenges face the United States and the international community in dealing with Iraq in the near term as well as in the more distant future? As part of the Gulf War cease-fire, the United Nations, under American leadership, placed unprecedented constraints on Iraq. They have been imposed using various instruments, sanctioned by Security Council resolutions, and implemented by U.S. and allied forces. They include: (1) an austere sanctions regime which has deprived Iraq of oil revenues and all imports not related to sustenance and medical necessities; (2) a program to destroy Iraq's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) as well as intrusive monitoring to prevent future WMD production; (3) no fly zones in the north and south to limit Iraq's capacity for repressing its population; (4) rectification of Iraq's border with Kuwait and a monitored demilitarized border zone. Published in Joint Force Quarterly (JFQ), p50-54, Autumn 1995.