Anticipatory Understanding of Adversary Intent: A Signature-Based Knowledge System

This paper outlines the recent development of a new ontological framework for modeling the intentional behavior of an adversary relative to its long-term strategic goals within a complex and emergent battlespace. Motivated by recent military doctrine and knowledge management literature, the paper describes how an adversary and its battlespace environment can be represented by four classes of knowledge: (1) battlespace artifacts, (2) cause-effect system models, (3) tactical episodes, and (4) strategic agenda hypotheses. While the first two classes represent the battlespace in terms of logico-scientific knowledge, the latter two classes provide a form of narrative knowledge essential to sensemaking in the real world. As these forms of knowledge are dynamically integrated over time, they provide the basis for (1) structural identification of behavior signatures that link adversary intentions and capability with observed actions and (2) transactional identification of battlespace weaknesses and emergent opportunities that can predict future adversary actions. The ontological framework represents a new paradigm -- one that dynamically constructs the meaning and interpretation of battlespace artifacts, systems, episodes, and organizational agendas on an as-needed basis. This new and powerful approach overcomes the limitations of existing knowledge representation methods by addressing operational context as the explicit subject of analytical inquiry. Presented at the International Command and Control Research and Technology Symposium (ICCRTS) (14th), Paper 163, held in Washington, DC, on 15-17 Jun 2009. Prepared in collaboration with U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory, Wright-Patterson AFB, OH. Document includes briefing charts in addition to text. The original document contains color images.