Econometric Estimates of Army Retention: Zones A, B, C, D and Retirement-Eligible, 1990-2004

Efficient allocation of reenlistment bonuses requires the ability to estimate the effect that the bonus will have on reenlistments in an occupational specialty. Previous research, conducted in developing the SRB Management System, estimated the effects of SRB on Zone A, B and C reenlistment decision...

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Hauptverfasser:	Moore, Carole, Hogan, Paul, Kirchner, Christian, Macklin, Patrick C, Greenston, Peter M
Format:	Report
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	COMPENSATION Computer Programming and Software DATA ACQUISITION DECISION MAKING Information Science MILITARY OCCUPATIONAL SPECIALTIES OEF(OPERATION ENDURING FREEDOM) OIF(OOPERATION IRAQI FREEDOM) PE665803 Personnel Management and Labor Relations PERSONNEL RETENTION REENLISTMENT RETIREMENT(PERSONNEL) TEST AND EVALUATION VALIDATION
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Zusammenfassung:	Efficient allocation of reenlistment bonuses requires the ability to estimate the effect that the bonus will have on reenlistments in an occupational specialty. Previous research, conducted in developing the SRB Management System, estimated the effects of SRB on Zone A, B and C reenlistment decisions made between FY1990 and FY2OOO. In this analysis, we extend the years analyzed to include FY2001 through FY2004. The additional years of data include Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF) and Operation Iraqi Freedom (OIF). We tested the ability of the existing model to predict reenlistment decision-making post-FY2OOO. To improve fit, we generated new econometric estimates by MOS, CMF and Zone using the more recent years of data, and conducted out-of-sample prediction testing to confirm the validity of the updated model. Task #-265. Study Note 2007-03. Prepared in cooperation with the Lewin Group, Inc. Fairfax, VA and the SAG Corp, Annandale, VA.