Ground Forces Battle Casualty Rate Patterns: Suggested Planning Considerations

A 4-year study of modem conventional ground operations (reported in 3 volumes: LMI FP703TRiI-TR2/-TR3) reveals patterns of personnel battle casualty rates strongly associated with patterns of operations. The third volume focuses on providing tables of rate data, and related techniques and considerations, to be used in evaluating or constructing rate estimates. Overall, the research combines insights from military theory, history, and operations research to investigate a new and large body of empirical data (from WWII, Korea, Middle East, and National Training Center -- much of it included in the first volume) on battle casualty rate behavior in modem conventional operations. Findings include detailed and general rate characteristics associated qualitatively and quantitatively with major forms of operations. Qualitative indicators include critical operational parameters for rate assessment, and fundamental operational scenario characteristics. Quantitative indicators provided in rate tables in this volume - include probable ranges of average (mean) rates for army and corps-size forces for varying time periods and scenarios, distributions (max, 75, median, 25, min) of i-day rates given those averages (for 5- and 10-day periods), measures of rate variability, rate frequencies, varying proportions of wounded casualties out of total, etc. Findings suggest that current U.S. and Allied casualty estimation methodologies and contemporary simulations fail to represent significant empirically-indicated rate patterns, and further suggest the character and degree of the misrepresentation. Improved approaches are described both to casualty estimation (to evaluate estimates made by whatever method or to construct estimates) and to help validate simulation Output of casualties.