Multiattribute Decision Modeling Techniques: A Comparative Analysis

This research developed a taxonomy of decision modeling techniques and accomplished a comparative analysis of two techniques developed and used by the Air Force in the areas of personnel selection, job classification, and promotion. The two techniques, policy capturing and policy specifying, were shown to have several characteristics which allowed them to be aligned with existing decision analytical theory. A set of criteria for evaluating the usefulness of particular technique in a particular decision context was developed, and four techniques were selected for more detailed study and evaluation. The four were: policy capturing, policy specifying, Simple Multiattribute Rating Technique (SMART), and Hierarchical Additive Weighting Method (HAWM). The last two were, respectively, examples of utility assessment and hierarchical decision models. A panel of experts rated each technique over the set of 16 criteria, first without regard to decision context. The panel then rated the match between each of the four techniques and the need for particular criteria in each of three Air Force decision contexts: person-job match, promotion and research and development project prioritization. Results of the ratings are presented and suggestions made for enhancing the Air Force's ability to conduct decision analytical studies.