A Feasibility Study of Relating Surface Ship OPTAR (Operating Target) Obligation Patterns to Their Operating Schedules

U.S. Navy surface ships receive their annual operating funds from their type commander in the form of an OPTAR (Operating Target). The ship's OPTAR can be viewed as the funding necessary to execute its annual budget. At present the type commander's budget office essentially uses a base plus incremental change budget process to allocate OPTAR. No attempt is made to allocate the OPTAR on the basis of when the funds are likely to be most needed. This thesis studies OPTAR spending patterns for two classes of Navy ships in the Pacific Fleet and attempts to quantify the relationship between employment and obligation. Regression analysis was used to generate a forecasting model. Based on the results of this analysis, a forecasting model was created that could accurately predict the spending requirements for these two classes of ships. The regression equations and comparison results are presented.