The Reagan Defense Budget: Prospects and Pressures

In this paper, I will discuss the ways in which a range of possible outcomes of the Reagan Administration's economic program could help to reinforce or undermine the prospects for real U.S. defense budget increases on the order of those presented by the President in March 1981. The prospects for planned real budget growth (which had been projected by some officials at 7% per year, in terms of outlays) could be rendered fairly bleak should the overall Federal economic plan fail. Under any circumstances, moreover, the political rationale for maintenance of significant real DoD budget growth can be expected to remain in a state of conflict with other components of the Reagan economic plan. Too, whether or not the Reagan economic program is successful, powerful pressures and restraints will undoubtedly shape the internal mix of the defense buildup. (Author)