Predictions of Key Entry Performance Using the Reconceptualized Expectancy Model

Research was conducted to replicate and to extend development of the reconceptualized expectancy model which predicts individual performance based on: (1) the individual's valence or value of outcomes; (2) the probability that these outcomes would be obtained through alternative performance levels; and (3) the individual's expectancy that he could perform at these alternative levels. The model was shown in an earlier work (AD-A030 451) to have substantial empirical validity. A questionnaire was individually administered to 30 data entry operators at the Long Beach Naval Shipyard. The questionnaire which was designed to estimate the components of the reconceptualized expectancy model, provided for estimates of the expectancies that specific effort levels would result in specified performance alternatives. These estimates were used to construct predictions of individual performance. It was assumed that the best predictions of performance would be obtained by using the expectancy that the performance levels would be reached at maximum effort. The results of an earlier study were replicated almost in their entirety; however, problems were found with the model. The implications of the replication and the significance of the problems encountered with the reconceptualized model are discussed.