Preliminary Functional Design for the Events Diagnostics System

This report describes the preliminary functional design for The Events Diagnostics System (TEDS). TEDS has evolved from a series of studies begun in 1972 focused on computer assisted ways by which an Indications and Warning (I and W) analyst may be helped to draw inferences concerning the likelihood occurrences of noteworthy and significant military-political events. TEDS features an event classification structure consisting of 26 military, political, diplomatic and economic event classes. Each event class consists of a number of 'a priori' indicators as selected from official literature, historical analysis and expert testimony. When these indicators are matched with an 'a posteriori' incident report, TEDS performs its processing functions and generates the several diagnostic displays for use by the analyst. Periodic multiple regression analyses are performed with the aid of the analyst and after-the-fact event evaluation to adjust the model by specific indicator and event class, thus providing for systematic feedback and improvement.