A Disequilibrium Adjustment Inflation Forecasting Model

This paper describes the development and testing of a forecasting model for future rates of inflation (measured by the Gross National Product price deflator). Limitations of conventional multiple-equation econometric model approaches (both economic and mathematical) are discussed. Correlation functi...

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
1. Verfasser:	Brush,John S
Format:	Report
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	COEFFICIENTS Correlation functions COSTS Econometrics ECONOMIC MODELS Economics and Cost Analysis ESTIMATES FORECASTING Gross national product INFLATION(ECONOMICS) INSTABILITY Interest rates MATHEMATICAL PREDICTION Price freezes RATES REGRESSION ANALYSIS STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS STATISTICAL TESTS VARIABLES
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Zusammenfassung:	This paper describes the development and testing of a forecasting model for future rates of inflation (measured by the Gross National Product price deflator). Limitations of conventional multiple-equation econometric model approaches (both economic and mathematical) are discussed. Correlation function analysis and stationarity considerations are employed to screen potential economic input variables before the application of regression analysis. Simulation results of a one and two-year horizon forecaster are examined, and a unique disequilibrium adjustment treatment for periods of price freeze is proposed. (Author)