Approximating the Probability of Mortality Due to Protracted Radiation Exposures

Probability of fatality plots in HPAC for whole body exposure due to nuclear weapons frequently indicate a median lethal dose (LD50) much higher than the prompt dose value, even for acute exposures. This apparent paradox is discussed in this paper. We conclude that the values generated by HPAC are r...

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Hauptverfasser:	McClellan,Gene, Crary,David, Oldson,Darren
Format:	Report
Sprache:	eng
Schlagworte:	bone marrow cells CHRNEM(Consolidated Human Response Nuclear Effects Model) detonations dose rate environmental exposure Health Effects hpac(Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability) human population ionizing radiation ld50(median lethal dose) lethality MarCell model(marrow cell model) Mortality nuclear weapons physiological processes Protracted Radiation Exposures radiation dosage radiation effects radiological weapons RIPD(Radiation-Induced Performance Decrement) weapons effects
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Zusammenfassung:	Probability of fatality plots in HPAC for whole body exposure due to nuclear weapons frequently indicate a median lethal dose (LD50) much higher than the prompt dose value, even for acute exposures. This apparent paradox is discussed in this paper. We conclude that the values generated by HPAC are reasonable in the MARCELL model, which includes the effects of bone marrow cell damage, repair and death. Values of fallout age-at-entry and exposure duration encountered in HPAC calculations typically generate exposures having LD50 ranging from 600 to 700 cGy, instead of the prompt value of 410 cGy. We present approximate methods for estimating the probability of mortality due to radiological environments from nuclear weapon detonations or from a radiological dispersal device.