A Model for Forecasting Enlisted Student IA Billet Requirements

The student portion of the Navys Individuals Account (Student IA) represents the time that sailors spend in training while in a student status. Sailors in a student status are not part of the Navys distributable inventory and, therefore, are not available for assignment to fleet units. Over execution of the student account, which occurs when in-year student IA execution exceeds its authorized endstrength (E/S), impedes the Navys ability to man the fleet. Many factors affect how well student IA execution aligns with its authorized E/S. Chief among them is the ability to accurately forecast future student execution levels. These forecasts become the student E/S requirements for program deliberations in the Program Objectives Memorandum (POM) process. The Navy recognizes the need to improve its forecasting capability. This study addresses that need by developing a prototype model that implements a new methodology for forecasting enlisted student billet requirements. The proposed model calculates these requirements by enlisted management community (EMC) and learning center based on future accession and fleet manpower requirements.