Review and Assessment of Chlorine Mammalian Lethality Data and the Development of a Human Estimate

New human estimates for chlorine inhalation lethality as a function of exposure duration were derived via a review and statistical analysis of existing mammalian lethality data. Such estimates are needed to support risk assessments and casualty predictions involving airborne releases of chlorine. At present, casualty predictions for such releases are at odds with what has been observed historically; the predicted downwind hazard area has often been much larger than what was actually observed. Either the present estimates for median lethal dosages (LCT50) are too low, the currently popular atmospheric transport and dispersion (ATD) models cannot adequately model chlorine releases, or both.LCT50 and quantal response data were analyzed for eight species (mouse, rat, guinea pig, rabbit, cat, dog, goat and sheep), for exposure durations from 8 to 235 minutes. The base 10 probit slope (concentration) was estimated via the weighted average of experimentally measured slopes in mammalian lethality studies. Resulting human lethality (military) estimates as a function of exposure duration were expressed via the toxic load model. General population estimates were derived from the military estimates using the mathematical method of Crosier (2007). Previous human estimates were reviewed and compared to the new general population estimate. The impact of the new estimate was evaluated through a series of transport and dispersion modeling runs for the catastrophic accidental release of 50 tons of chlorine from a tanker car. The sensitivity of downwind hazard distances was also investigated as a function of median lethal toxic load (TL), toxic load exponent and probit slope values. Military Operatiohs Research, 15, 3, 01 Jan 0001, 01 Jan 0001, Article is based upon presentation that was given at the 76th Military Operations Research Society Symposium, New London, CT, 10 June 2008. Paper was judged to be the best paper within WG-2 NBC Operations and was nominated for the Barchi Prize (though did not win).