The Sino-Soviet Issue: War by 1990

The study examines whether or not there is a reasonable probability that the Soviet Union and China will be at war between now and 1990--whether the current Sino-Soviet rift will deepen into conflict. After a brief historical overview, the national interests of each country are explored. They indicate a continued hostile relationship for the foreseeable future, barring major changes in the national interests. Four variables are introduced and considered in detail: the problem of succession, particularly in China after Mao's death; the increasing size of each country's nuclear arsenal; the border dispute, its background and significance; and the probable direction which the balance of power in the Asian area will take. (Modified author abstract)