AN ANALYSIS OF INTERCITY PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT WITHIN THE CALIFORNIA CORRIDOR THROUGH 1980

Analysis of intercity passenger traffic moving within the California Corridor, between Sacramento on the north and San Diego on the south, through 1980. Projects passenger traffic between 13 selected city pairs, allocates this traffic among various modes of transportation, and assesses technological developments in surface transportation systems within the Corridor, and impact of these developments on competitive positions of various modes. Surface transport systems now serving these markets as well as proposed new types of high-speed systems were examined. Allocations between air and surface modes was based on fixed wing technology, leaving to a companion McDonnell Aircraft Study assessment of the competitive capabilities of more advanced types of short-haul aircraft such as V/STOL. Traffic by all modes in 13 markets projected to grow at an average annual rate of 6.5 percent through 1980 to 178 million passengers. Private auto will continue as dominant competitor in these markets, based on low operating costs. Bus market participation to decrease. Rail passenger service to disappear. New high-speed ground transportation systems possibly serving these markets (but not before 1980)--with purported speed potential equal to or exceeding present aircraft--pose unresolved technical and economic problems. Plans for development of new air systems to serve these markets beyond 1980 should be closely coordinated with Department of Commerce research on new ground systems. (Author)