VULNERABILITY REDUCTION USING MOVEMENT AND SHELTER. VOLUME 2

This report describes an effort to find preferred mixtures of movement and shelter as Civil Defense responses to the threat of nuclear war. Two approaches were followed: (1) Mixtures of movement and shelter were studied in three steps. These consisted of: Postulation of alternative movement and shelter policies, Development of movement and shelter plans based on these policies, Evaluation of plans developed in (b) against the range of attack conditions considered reasonable. (2) A mathematical model was constructed to provide a vehicle for sensitivity analyses. A technique for planning large- scale strategic movements was developed and applied to several particular places. The technique is believed to be developed sufficiently to provide a basis for planning a first-generation strategic movement capability for the U. S. Two computer programs were developed as tools for evaluating strategic movement against particular attacks and for evaluating various trans-attack responses to large-scale movements interrupted by war. Blast shelter planning programs are also reviewed and developed further. Evaluation techniques are already available. The mathematical model approach ended with the development of a computer program for finding the shelter location and hardness required to maximize overall survival probability for various warning time probability density functions and attack and movement assumptions. See also AD620893.