Future climate effects on basal stem rot of conventional and modified oil palm in Indonesia and Thailand

Oil palms (OP) produce palm oil, a unique commodity without commercial alternatives. A serious disease of OP is basal stem rot (BSR) caused by Ganoderma boninense Pat. Climate change will likely increase BSR, thereby causing mortality of OP and reduced yields of palm oil. Work is being undertaken to produce modified OP (mOP) to resist BSR, although this will take decades for full development, if successfully produced at all. mOP will not be 100% effective, and it would be useful to know the effect of mOP on the key parameters of BSR incidence, OP mortality, and yield loss. The current paper employed CLIMEX modeling of suitable climates for OP and modeling narratives for Indonesia and Thailand. Indonesia is the largest producer of OP and Thailand is a much smaller manufacturer, and it was informative to compare these two countries. The gains from using mOP were substantial compared to the current production of some other continents and countries. The current paper, for the first time, assessed how climate change will affect BSR parameters for conventional and mOP. Greater consideration of the potential benefits of mOP is required to justify investing in the technology.