Quantitative assessment of the spatio-temporal correlations of seismic events induced by longwall coal mining

Rock failure process as a natural response to mining activities is associated with seismic events, which can pose a potential hazard to mine operators, equipment and infrastructures. Mining-induced seismicity has been found to be internally correlated in both time and space domains as a result of rock fracturing during progressive mining activities. Understanding the spatio-temporal (ST) correlation of mining-induced seismic events is an essential step to use seismic data for further analysis, such as rockburst prediction and caving assessment. However, there are no established methods to perform this critical task. Input parameters used for the prediction of seismic hazards, such as the time window of past data and effective prediction distance, are determined based on site-specific experience without statistical or physical reasons to support. Therefore, the accuracy of current seismic prediction methods is largely constrained, which can only be addressed by quantitively assessing the ST correlations of mining-induced seismicity. In this research, the ST correlation of seismic event energy collected from a study mine is quantitatively analysed using various statistical methods, including autocorrelation function (ACF), semivariogram and Moran's I analysis. In addition, based on the integrated ST correlation assessment, seismic events are further classified into seven clusters, so as to assess the correlations within individual clusters. The correlation of seismic events is found to be quantitatively assessable, and their correlations may vary throughout the mineral extraction process.