Analyzing emotions in online classes: Unveiling insights through topic modeling, statistical analysis, and random walk techniques

High dropout rates globally perpetuate educational disparities with various underlying causes. Despite numerous strategies to address this issue, more attention should be given to understanding and addressing student emotions during classes. This lack of focus adversely affects learner engagement and retention rates. While previous studies on online learning have primarily emphasized the effectiveness of technology, infrastructure, cognition, motivation, and economic benefits, there is still a gap in understanding the emotional aspects of distance learning. First, this study addresses this gap by employing thematic modeling and utilizing non-negative matrix factorization (NMF) for emotion recognition through students’ deep learning techniques and facial emotion recognition (FER). Second, statistical analysis of these findings further augments the depth of the study. Finally, the research proposes a mathematical model based on the random walk of emotional state transitions. The findings of this study underscore the importance of considering emotions in distance learning environments and their significant impact on student’s academic performance and satisfaction. By acknowledging and addressing these emotional factors, educators can enhance learner engagement, promote positive emotions, mitigate negative emotions during online learning, and ultimately improve the effectiveness of online courses. •Adopt a multidimensional approach to studying emotions in the context of online courses.•Quantify the relationship and clusters between emotions.•Simulate the temporal dynamics of emotions during online classes.•Develop interventions and strategies to foster positive emotional experiences and effective communication.•Provide a holistic perspective on emotion dynamics.