Risk-Prediction Model for Transfusion of Erythrocyte Concentrate During Extracorporeal Circulation in Coronary Surgery

Our objective was to identify preoperative risk factors and to develop and validate a risk-prediction model for the need for blood (erythrocyte concentrate [EC]) transfusion during extracorporeal circulation (ECC) in patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). This is a retrospective observational study including 530 consecutive patients who underwent isolated on-pump CABG at our Centre over a full two-year period. The risk model was developed and validated by logistic regression and bootstrap analysis. Discrimination and calibration were assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test, respectively. EC transfusion during ECC was required in 91 patients (17.2%). Of these, the majority were transfused with one (54.9%) or two (41.8%) EC units. The final model covariates (reported as odds ratios; 95% confidence interval) were age (1.07; 1.02-1.13), glomerular filtration rate (0.98; 0.96-1.00), body surface area (0.95; 0.92-0.98), peripheral vascular disease (3.03; 1.01-9.05), cerebrovascular disease (4.58; 1.29-16.18), and hematocrit (0.55; 0.48-0.63). The risk model developed has an excellent discriminatory power (AUC: 0,963). The results of the H-L test showed that the model predicts accurately both on average and across the ranges of deciles of risk. A risk-prediction model for EC transfusion during ECC was developed, which performed adequately in terms of discrimination, calibration, and stability over a wide spectrum of risk. It can be used as an instrument to provide accurate information about the need for EC transfusion during ECC, and as a valuable adjunct for local improvement of clinical practice.