Application of multi-objective and robust optimization methods for a comparative evaluation of nuclear energy system deployment scenarios

This article describes additional computational modules developed for the IAEA energy planning software MESSAGE. These modules are intended for multi-objective and robust optimization of deployment scenarios for nuclear energy systems with account for the uncertainties in technical and economical parameters. The authors present the results of application of the developed modules for the studies on multi-objective optimization of the nuclear energy structures. The developed set of computational modules makes it possible to find a compromise between conflicting system factors determining the nuclear energy development, carry out a comparative multi-criteria analysis of development options with due account for their evolution, specific features of the nuclear fuel cycle structure and organization as well as the most important system constraints. Application of the multi-objective and robust optimization methods together with statistical methods for uncertainty assessment may help formulate more substantiated judgments about the attractiveness of possible nuclear energy structures by comparing various development options. These IAEA based software tools make it possible to determine nuclear energy development strategy options due to a combination of conflicting systemic factors taking into account uncertainties in the main technical and economical parameters.