Production and inventory control of auto parts based on predicted probabilistic distribution of inventory

Bayesian networks are probabilistic models used for prediction and decision making under uncertainty. The delivery quantity, the production quantity, and the inventory are changing according to various unexpected events. Then the prediction of a production inventory is required to cope with such irregular fluctuations. This paper considers a production adjustment method for an automobile parts production process by using a dynamic Bayesian network. All factors that may influence the production quantity, the delivery quantity, and the inventory quantity will be handled. This study also provides a production schedule algorithm that sequentially adjusts the production schedule in order to guarantee that all deadlines are met. Furthermore, an adjusting rule for the production quantities is provided in order to maintain guaranteed delivery.