Combining MaxEnt model and landscape pattern theory for analyzing interdecadal variation of sugarcane climate suitability in Guangxi, China

•Overall, climate warming is beneficial to sugarcane distribution.•There is a risk of drought in the main sugarcane producing areas.•The cropland fragmentation is significant in sugarcane climate suitable area.•The sugar industry has faced challenges seriously in recent years under global warming and human factors. Guangxi is the primary producer of sugarcane in China and provides a highly suitable habitat for sugarcane growth. However, its distribution range has changed significantly in recent years due to climate change as well as human factors. Without extensive knowledge of the changing trends in suitable sugarcane planting areas, efforts to improve its productivity in Guangxi may be insufficient. In this study, the interdecadal change in sugarcane distribution in Guangxi in response to climate change from 1960 to 2019 was estimated using the MaxEnt model and the landscape pattern of land use in the suitable sugarcane area was analyzed. In addition, we discuss the effects of global warming on sugarcane production in the sustainable development of the sugar industry in Guangxi. Our results indicate: (1) from 1960 to 2019, approximately 65% of Guangxi Province could grow sugarcane. Chongzuo City, Nanning City and Parts of Baise City, are highly suitable areas, and unsuitable areas are mainly concentrated in the north. In general, sugarcane climate suitability extended further in low-altitude areas, and then extended to high- altitude areas. However, from the 2000s to the 2010s, climate suitability showed a decreasing trend, decreasing from 16.036 × 106 ha to 15.4985 × 106 ha (2) The order of land use area in the suitable sugarcane climate range was as follows: woodland > cropland > grassland > construction land > water. With the increase in climate suitability, the distribution of cultivated land expanded. From 1980 to 2005, cropland in suitable areas showed a fragmentation trend. By 2010, the cropland patches disappeared after fragmentation. (3) Due to landscape constraints, infertile soil, and labor costs, the sugar industry faces various challenges. The evaluation of climate suitability could provide a theoretical reference for a planting layout of sugarcane, and landscape pattern analysis of suitable sugarcane climate areas is conducive to the integration of small pieces of land into large ones, making mechanization possible. Overall, strict layout and management measures are required in sugarcane planting areas.