Moving Beyond the State: An Imperative for Genocide Prediction

Studies of the onset of genocide and accompanying early warning and forecasting efforts have focused almost exclusively on states. This article suggests that genocide prediction must move beyond a purely state-centric approach. Specifically, I suggest three major avenues that will refine and complement existing research and related prediction efforts. These include 1) theorizing and analyzing non-state actors who commit genocide, 2) engaging in conflict-centered approaches, and 3) addressing the onset and triggers of genocide within subnational spaces. I conclude with a discussion of how these three avenues can be pursued simultaneously to inform more robust genocide prevention endeavors.