Including climate change to predict the global suitable area of an invasive pest: Bactrocera correcta (Diptera: Tephritidae)

Bactrocera correcta (Diptera: Tephritidae), as known as invasive pest guava fruit fly, can attack numerous host plants including many horticultural crops and cause huge destruction. Whilst its distribution is currently restricted in Southeast Asia, under the context of global trade and climate change, guava fruit fly can be transported with goods and spread with regional climate. Many countries have included the species on their quarantine pest lists, in order to offer the strategy for specific surveillance and early warnings, the research of predicting the suitable areas under climate change is essential. In this study, 56 environmental variables were initially tested, and six selected for final analysis using MaxEnt to predict suitable habitat, ENMeval package was used in R to avoid overfitting and run the models under two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios in 2030 and 2070 based on CMIP6. The total suitable area of the historical scenario is 3235.42 × 104 km2, and it accounts for 24.06% of the world’s total area and includes India and neighboring countries in Asia, pacific islands, and North Australia, Central and South America, central Africa. Water vapor pressure and solar radiation were the most influential variables for B. correcta, the rising temperature could lead increasing of suitable area slightly. The predictive results of the research can provide support for quarantine and management for the high-risk countries.