Integration of a Crop Growth Model and Deep Learning Methods to Improve Satellite-Based Yield Estimation of Winter Wheat in Henan Province, China

Timely and accurate regional crop-yield estimates are crucial for guiding agronomic practices and policies to improve food security. In this study, a crop-growth model was integrated with time series of remotely sensed data through deep learning (DL) methods to improve the accuracy of regional wheat-yield estimations in Henan Province, China. Firstly, the time series of moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were input into the long short-term memory network (LSTM) model to identify the wheat-growing region, which was further used to estimate wheat areas at the municipal and county levels. Then, the leaf area index (LAI) and grain-yield time series simulated by the Crop Environment REsource Synthesis for Wheat (CERES-Wheat) model were used to train and evaluate the LSTM, one-dimensional convolutional neural network (1-D CNN) and random forest (RF) models, respectively. Finally, an exponential model of the relationship between the field-measured LAI and MODIS NDVI was applied to obtain the regional LAI, which was input into the trained LSTM, 1-D CNN and RF models to estimate wheat yields within the wheat-growing region. The results showed that the linear correlations between the estimated wheat areas and the statistical areas were significant at both the municipal and county levels. The LSTM model provided more accurate estimates of wheat yields, with higher R2 values and lower root mean square error (RMSE) and mean relative error (MRE) values than the 1-D CNN and RF models. The LSTM model has an inherent advantage in capturing phenological information contained in the time series of the MODIS-derived LAI, which is important for satellite-based crop-yield estimates.