Construction and evaluation of a column chart model and a random forest model for predicting the prognosis of hydrodistention surgery in BPS/IC patients based on preoperative CD117, P2X3R, NGF, and TrkA levels

This study seeks to investigate independent risk factors affecting the prognoses of patients with bladder pain syndrome/interstitial cystitis (BPS/IC) following hydrodistention surgery and to develop a column chart model and a random forest model to help predict clinical outcomes. A retrospective analysis was conducted on the clinical data of 1006 BPS/IC patients who visited the urology department of the Fifth Hospital of Shanxi Medical University (Shanxi Provincial People's Hospital) between June 2012 and June 2022. The patients were randomly divided into a model group (n = 704) and a validation group (n = 302). In the model group, logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent risk factors, which were used to construct a prognostic nomogram. The nomogram was evaluated by analyzing the area under the curve (AUC), calibration curve, and decision curve. These results were subsequently validated via consistency analysis (n = 302). And based on the random forest algorithm, we calculate the same data and construct a random forest model. Multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that age and the expression of the biomarkers CD117, P2X3R, NGF, and TrkA were independent prognostic factors for patients with BPS/IC (P