Global prevalence, burden and trend in HIV and drug-susceptible tuberculosis co-infection from 1990 to 2019 and prediction to 2040

The purpose of this study is to describe the current situation and forecast the trends of co-infection between the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and drug-susceptible tuberculosis (DS-TB) in different countries, across various age groups and genders. We obtained data on the number of cases, age-standardized incidence rate, age-standardized prevalence rate, age-standardized rate of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and age-standardized death rate from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019 database. These data were used to describe the distribution and burden of co-infection between the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and DS-TB in different regions, genders, and age groups. We employed joinpoint regression analysis to analyze the temporal trends from 1990 to 2019. Additionally, an age-period-cohort model was established to forecast the future trends of co-infection up to 2040. The prevalence and burden of co-infection varied across different age groups and genders. The territories with the higher disease burden were distributed in some Asian and African countries. In terms of temporal trends, the age-standardized incidence rate and age-standardized prevalence rate of HIV and DS-TB co-infection exhibited an overall increasing trend from 1990 to 2019, and the prediction indicated a slow downward trend from 2019 to 2040. The co-infection of HIV and DS-TB posed a grave threat to public health and economic development. What’s more, there existed a significant disparity between the actual state of co-infection and the desired goals for prevention and control.