Probabilistic Risk Assessment of Heavy Metals in Mining Soils Based on Fractions: A Case Study in Southern Shaanxi, China

With rapid economic development, soil heavy metal (HM) pollution has emerged as a global environmental concern. Because the toxicity of HMs differs dramatically among various fractions, risk assessments based on these fractions are of great significance for environmental management. This study employed a modified Hakanson index approach to evaluate the possible ecological impacts of soil HMs in a gold mine tailings pond in Shaanxi Province, China. A modified Hakanson-Monte Carlo model was built to perform a probabilistic risk assessment. The results showed that: (1) the exceedance rates of chromium (Cr) and zinc (Zn) were 68.75% and 93.75%, respectively. Moreover, the overall concentrations of nickel (Ni), copper (Cu), arsenic (As), and lead (Pb) were higher than the background soil environmental values in China. (2) HMs with the lowest oxidizable fraction were mostly present in the residual fraction. The oxidizable portions of Cr, Cu, and Pb and the reducible and residual fractions of As were notably distinct. (3) The risk degrees of Cr, Ni, Cu, and Zn were low; those of As and Pb were very high and moderate; and the comprehensive ecological hazard index was very high. This study offers a solid scientific foundation for ecological risk notification and environmental management.