Predicting wave overtopping thresholds on coral reef-island shorelines with future sea-level rise

Wave-driven flooding is a serious hazard on coral reef-fringed coastlines that will be exacerbated by global sea-level rise. Despite the global awareness of atoll island vulnerability, little is known about the physical processes that control wave induced flooding on reef environments. To resolve the primary controls on wave-driven flooding at present and future sea levels, we present a globally applicable method for calculating wave overtopping thresholds on reef coastlines. A unique dataset of 60,000 fully nonlinear wave transformation simulations representing a wide range of wave energy, morphology and sea levels conditions was analysed to develop a tool for exploring the future trajectory of atoll island vulnerability to sea-level rise. The proposed reef-island overtopping threshold (RIOT) provides a widely applicable first-order assessment of reef-coast vulnerability to wave hazards with sea-level. Future overtopping thresholds identified for different atoll islands reveal marked spatial variability and highlight distinct morphological characteristics that enhance coastal resilience. Sea-level rise will exacerbate wave overtopping on low-lying coral reef islands. Here the authors present a novel method that quantifies wave overtopping thresholds and associated reef-island vulnerability trajectories based on differences in local wave climate, reef morphology and island height.