The influence of the conservation status and changes in the rainfall regime on forest-savanna mosaic dynamics in Northern Brazilian Amazonia

Coupled carbon/climate models are predicting changes in Amazon carbon and water cycles for the near future, with conversion of forest into savanna-like vegetation. However, empirical data to support these models are still scarce for Amazon. Facing this scenario, we investigated whether conservation status and changes in rainfall regime have influenced the forest-savanna mosaic over 20 years, from 1986 to 2006, in a transitional area in Northern Amazonia. By applying a spectral linear mixture model to a Landsat-5-TM time series, we identified protected savanna enclaves within a strictly protected nature reserve (Maracá Ecological Station - MES) and non-protected forest islands at its outskirts and compared their areas among 1986/1994/2006. The protected savanna enclaves decreased 26% in the 20-years period at an average rate of 0.131 ha year-1, with a greater reduction rate observed during times of higher precipitation, whereas the non-protected forest islands remained stable throughout the period of study, balancing the encroachment of forests into the savanna during humid periods and savannization during reduced rainfall periods. Thus, keeping favorable climate conditions, the MES conservation status would continue to favor the forest encroachment upon savanna, while the non-protected outskirt areas would remain resilient to disturbance regimes. However, if the increases in the frequency of dry periods predicted by climate models for this region are confirmed, future changes in extension and directions of forest limits will be affected, disrupting ecological services as carbon storage and the maintenance of local biodiversity. Modelos acoplados carbono/clima prenunciam mudanças nos ciclos do carbono e da água em um futuro próximo, substituindo gradualmente florestas tropicais por savanas. No entanto, dados empíricos que dão suporte a estes modelos ainda são escassos para a Amazônia. Diante deste cenário, investigamos se o status de conservação e as variações de precipitação influenciaram as mudanças ocorridas em 20 anos nos mosaicos floresta-savana, em uma área de transição ao norte da Amazônia. Utilizando imagens-fração do modelo de mistura aplicado à série temporal Landsat-5TM, enclaves de savana protegidos da Estação Ecológica de Maracá e ilhas de mata não protegidas do seu entorno foram identificados e suas áreas comparadas entre os anos 1986, 1994 e 2006. Os enclaves protegidos contraíram 26% em 20 anos a uma taxa média de 0,131 ha ano-1, com maiores