Assessment of NSCLC disease burden: A survival model-based meta-analysis study

We present a meta-analytics approach to quantify NSCLC disease burden by integrative survival models. Aggregated survival data from public sources were used to parameterize the models for early as well as advanced NSCLC stages incorporating chemotherapies, targeted therapies, and immunotherapies. Overall survival (OS) was predicted in a heterogeneous patient cohort based on various stratifications and initial conditions. Pharmacoeconomic metrics (life years gained (LYG) and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) gained), were evaluated to quantify the benefits of specialized treatments and improved early detection of NSCLC. Simulations showed that the introduction of novel therapies for the advanced NSCLC sub-group increased median survival by 8.1 months (95 % CI: 5.9, 10.0), with corresponding gains of 2.9 months (95 % CI: 2.2, 3.6) in LYG and 1.65 months (95 % CI: 1.2, 2.0) in QALY. Scenarios representing improved detection of early cancer in the whole patient cohort, revealed up to 17.6 (95 % CI: 16.5, 19.0) and 15.7 months (95 % CI: 14.8, 16.6) increase in median survival, with respective gains of 6.2 months (95 % CI: 5.9, 6.4) and 5.2 months (95 % CI: 4.9, 5.4) in LYG and 6.6 months (95 % CI: 6.4, 6.7) and 6.0 months (95 % CI: 5.9, 6.2) in QALY for conventional and optimal treatment. This integrative modeling platform, aimed at characterizing cancer burden, allows to precisely quantify the cumulative benefits of introducing specialized therapies into the treatment schemes and survival prolongation upon early detection of the disease. [Display omitted] •Published epidemiology and RCT survival data were digitized, and combined parametric models were qualified for NSCLC disease.•Various initial distributions of disease stages and treatments were investigated to affect survival outcomes up to 60 months.•Disease burden analysis was performed, to evaluate benefits provided by optimal treatment selection and improved diagnostics.•This research provides a healthcare management tool for improved assessment of cancer screening and treatment programs.