Hydrological Factor and Land Use/Land Cover Change Explain the Vegetation Browning in the Dosso Reserve, Niger

The West Sahel is facing significant threats to its vegetation and wildlife due to the land degradation and habitat fragmentation. It is crucial to assess the regional vegetation greenness dynamics in order to comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness of protection in the natural reserves. This study analyzes the vegetation greenness trends and the driving factors in the Dosso Partial Faunal Reserve in Niger and nearby unprotected regions—one of the most important habitats for endemic African fauna—using satellite time series data from 2001 to 2020. An overall vegetation browning trend was observed throughout the entire region with significant spatial variability. Vegetation browning dominated in the Dosso Reserve with 17.7% of the area showing a significant trend, while the area with significant greening was 6.8%. In a comparison, the nearby unprotected regions to the north and the east were found to be dominated by vegetation browning and greening, respectively. These results suggest that the vegetation protection practice was not fully effective throughout the Dosso Reserve. The dominant drivers were also diagnosed using the Random Forest model-based method and the Partial Dependence Plot tool, showing that water availability (expressed as soil moisture) and land use/land cover change were the most critical factors affecting vegetation greenness in the study region. Specifically, soil moisture stress and specific land management practices associated with logging, grazing, and land clearing appeared to dominate vegetation browning in the Dosso Reserve. In contrast, the vegetation greening in the central Dosso Reserve and the nearby unprotected region to the east was probably caused by the increase in shrubland/forest, which was related to the effective implementation of protection. These findings improve our understanding of how regional vegetation greenness dynamics respond to environmental changes in the Dosso Reserve and also highlight the need for more effective conservation planning and implementation to ensure sustainable socio-ecological development in the West Sahel.