Causal Inference in the Outer Radiation Belt: Evidence for Local Acceleration

Currently, there is no clear understanding of the comprehensive set of variables that controls fluxes of relativistic electrons within the outer radiation belt. Herein, the methodology based on causal inference is applied for identification of factors that control fluxes of relativistic electrons in the outer belt. The patterns of interactions between the solar wind, geomagnetic activity and belt electrons have been investigated. We found a significant information transfer from solar wind, geomagnetic activity and fluxes of very low energy electrons (54 keV), into fluxes of relativistic (470 keV) and ultra‐relativistic (2.23 MeV) electrons. We present evidence of a direct causal relationship from relativistic into ultra‐relativistic electrons, which points to a local acceleration mechanism for electrons energization. It is demonstrated that the observed information transfer from low energy electrons at 54 keV into energetic electrons at 470 keV is due to the presence of common external drivers such as substorm activity. Plain Language Summary Despite the fact that the discovery of the radiation belts occurred more than 60 years ago, a comprehensive understanding of the physical processes that are involved in the dynamics of the fluxes of relativistic electrons in the outer radiation belt is still lacking. Development of a thorough physical model accounting for the radiation belt dynamics has the potential to assist mitigation of spacecraft hazards caused by energetic particles. Herein, an information‐theoretical approach, based on the methodology of causal inference, is applied for identification of factors that control fluxes of relativistic electrons in the outer belt. The patterns of interactions between the solar wind, geomagnetic activity and belt electrons have been investigated. We have found that inward radial transport from an external source is a less favorable mechanism than local acceleration for the energization of outer radiation belt electrons from relativistic to ultra‐relativistic energies. Key Points Evidence of direct causality from relativistic into ultra‐relativistic electrons, compatible with local acceleration in the outer belt Detection of information transfer unveils the mechanisms of energy transfer in radiation belts, important for space weather forecasting Information flow formulation of causality has a great potential for space physics discoveries