Establishment of a metabolic syndrome factors-based coronary heart disease risk prediction model for rural residents in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region

ObjectiveTo construct a metabolic syndrome (MS) factors-based model for predicting the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) among rural residents of Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region (Xinjiang) for CHD prevention and treatment in the population. Methods Complete baseline information were collected through face-to-face questionnaire interview, physical examination and laboratory tests from 16 853 of 18 524 adult rural residents (aged ≥ 18 years) recruited with multistage stratified cluster random sampling at two counties of Xinjiang and a division of Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps during April 2010, December 2012 and November 2016. Subsequent follow-up surveys were carried out among the eligible participants from April 2013 to July 2021 and finally 3 647 participants with a follow-up period of five years and more (averagely 5.28 ± 1.67 years) and without CHD at the baseline survey were included in the analysis, of which, two-thirds (n = 9 155) were randomly assigned into a training set and one-third