The Future of Sustainable Energy Production in Pakistan: A System Dynamics-Based Approach for Estimating Hubbert Peaks

This paper presents an effort pertaining to the simulation of the future production in Pakistan of different primary energy resources, i.e., coal, natural gas and crude oil, thereby constructing Hubbert peaks. In this context, the past 45 years’ production data of primary energy resources of Pakistan have been analyzed and simulated using a generic STELLA (Systems Thinking, Experimental Learning Laboratory with Animation) model. The results show that the Hubbert peak of Pakistan’s crude oil production has been somehow already achieved in 2013, with the highest production of 4.52 million toe, which is 1.51 times the production in 2000. Similarly, the natural gas peak production is expected in 2024 with a production of 32.70 million toe which shall be 1.96-fold the extraction of the resource in the year 2000. On the other hand, the coal production in the country has been historically very low and with a constant production rate that is gradually picking up, the peak production year for the coal is anticipated to be in the year 2080 with an estimated production of 134.06 million. Based on the results of this study, which provide a greater understanding of future energy patterns, it is recommended that an energy security policy be devised for the country to ensure sustained supplies in the future.