Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki Smallpox Data

Modelling and Bayesian analysis of the Abakaliki Smallpox Data

Highlights • We re-analyse the celebrated Abakaliki smallpox data • Use of Bayesian MCMC methods overcomes limitations of previous analyses • Results demonstrate the importance of close contacts for smallpox transmission • We estimate who-infected-whom during the outbreak • Model assessment is carri...

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Veröffentlicht in:Epidemics 2017-06, Vol.19 (C), p.13-23
Hauptverfasser: Stockdale, Jessica E, Kypraios, Theodore, O’Neill, Philip D
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
Abakaliki
Bayes Theorem
Bayesian inference
Disease Outbreaks - statistics & numerical data
Humans
Infectious Disease
Internal Medicine
Markov chain Monte Carlo
Markov Chains
Models, Statistical
Monte Carlo Method
Nigeria - epidemiology
Smallpox
Smallpox - epidemiology
Stochastic epidemic model
Stochastic Processes
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Beschreibung
Zusammenfassung:Highlights • We re-analyse the celebrated Abakaliki smallpox data • Use of Bayesian MCMC methods overcomes limitations of previous analyses • Results demonstrate the importance of close contacts for smallpox transmission • We estimate who-infected-whom during the outbreak • Model assessment is carried out using simulation methods
ISSN:1755-4365
1878-0067
DOI:10.1016/j.epidem.2016.11.005