Are science competitions meeting their intentions? a case study on affective and cognitive predictors of success in the Physics Olympiad

Contemporary science competitions particularly have two intentions: (1) identifying the students demonstrating the highest levels of domain-specific cognitive abilities and (2) recognizing and valuing the efforts of engaged and motivated students, even those without exceptional abilities. This study aimed to examine the relative influence of affective and cognitive variables on predicting success among 136 participants of the first two rounds of the German Physics Olympiad, and based on that, evaluate the extent to which the Physics Olympiad meets the outlined intentions. Our findings indicate that the competition’s initial round erects a hurdle for engaged and motivated students who lack sufficient cognitive abilities, which goes against the above mentioned second intention. Conversely, the Physics Olympiad appears to effectively align with its first intention by successfully identifying students with high developed physics-specific abilities. Building on our findings, we discuss ways for better aligning the competition with its intentions, thus contributing to the ongoing further development of science competitions.